Ottawa Real Estate News Release (OREB) – Ottawa MLS® Market Shows Early Signs of a Buzzing Spring Market
April 4, 2024
The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 1,165 units in March 2024. This was an increase of 10% from March 2023.
Home sales were 21.5% below the five-year average and 15% below the 10-year average for the month of March.
On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 2,678 units over the first three months of the year — an increase of 13.1% from the same period in 2023.
“Ottawa’s real estate market is overall healthy, providing fertile ground for an active spring and summer ahead,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “The increases in new and active listings indicate that sellers are feeling more confident, boosted by the rise in showing activity. Buyers, however, aren’t acting as quickly as they perhaps should be — likely because affordability and supply are still roadblocks.”
“Something is around the corner in this market, though,” says Fillier. “People have adjusted to post-pandemic life and that means revisiting their housing needs. Some are downsizing or moving in from the city’s outskirts. Others are looking at more suitable properties that better meet all their needs, which weren’t accessible to them in the peak pandemic market. That’s creating pressure from multiple angles on the mid-range property market, which we know is tight to begin with in Ottawa. Just because you’re in the real estate market, doesn’t mean you’re safe from the market. If you’re a buyer or seller looking to make a move, I wouldn’t wait too long.”
By the Numbers – Prices:
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.
- The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $636,700 in March 2024, a gain of 2.7% from March 2023.
- The benchmark price for single-family homes was $719,000, up 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in March.
- By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $489,800, up slightly at 0.9% compared to a year earlier.
- The benchmark apartment price was $423,200, up 4.3% from year-ago levels.
- The average price of homes sold in March 2024 was $682,078 increasing 5.1% from March 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $659,828, increasing by 3.2% from the first three months of 2023. The dollar volume of all home sales in March 2024 was $794.6 million, up 15.6% from the same month in 2023.
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings
- The number of new listings saw an increase of 13.5% from March 2023. There were 2,074 new residential listings in March 2024. New listings were 2.3% below the five-year average and 11.1% below the 10-year average for the month of March.
- Active residential listings numbered 2,543 units on the market at the end of March 2024, a gain of 18.3% from March 2023. Active listings were 58.6% above the five-year average and 17.7% below the 10-year average for the month of March. Active listings haven’t been this high in the month of March in more than five years.
- Months of inventory numbered 2.2 at the end of March 2024, up only slight from 2 in March 2023 and below the long-run average of 2.6 months for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
CREA – The Canadian Real Estate Association – March 2024
The Canadian Real Estate Association issued new National Residential Statistics on March 18, 2024 details here.
The latest news release from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) dated March 18, 2024, indicates a notable shift in the Canadian housing market as the seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) remained flat month-over-month in February 2024. This stability follows a series of five consecutive monthly declines that started in the fall of the previous year. The stabilization of prices marks a significant turn from a 1.3% decrease observed from December to January, highlighting the rarity of such swift changes in the typically steady seasonally adjusted MLS® HPI.
According to CREA, this development is only the fourth instance in the past two decades where such a sudden month-over-month change has occurred, all of which have happened in the last four years during periods when demand surged unexpectedly. CREA’s Senior Economist, Shaun Cathcart, suggests that February might be the final calm period before the 2024 housing market becomes more dynamic, driven by accumulated demand and the availability of properties for sale.
The news release also shares that national home sales decreased by 3.1% month-over-month in February, yet were 19.7% higher than in February 2023. The number of newly listed properties saw a slight increase of 1.6% from January to February. Furthermore, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price observed a year-over-year increase of 3.5% in February 2024.
Looking ahead, the narrative around the housing market in 2024 seems poised for change, influenced by the potential for interest rate adjustments and the volume of new listings coming to market. The national sales-to-new listings ratio slightly eased to 55.6%, aligning closely with the long-term average and indicating a balanced market. The detailed statistics and insights suggest cautious optimism for the Canadian housing market as it approaches the spring season.
Ottawa Real Estate News Release (OREB) – Ottawa’s MLS® Market Activity Shows Strong Start to the Year
February 6, 2023
The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 886 units in February 2024. This was an increase of 15.2% from February 2023.
Home sales were 13.8% below the five-year average and 5.7% below the 10-year average for the month of February.
“Even with higher prices and the interest rate holding steady, Ottawa is a strong, active market,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “With metrics across the board up from last year, it’s clear both buyers and sellers are making moves. The metrics, however, don’t tell us about all the people relegated to the sidelines because affordability remains out of reach for many.”
The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) recently reported that “communities with homes under $500,000 are becoming increasingly scarce.” A decade ago, 74% of Ontario residential properties had a home value estimate of less than $500,000 but that number has dropped to just 19% today.
“REALTORS® know firsthand there is persistent demand for housing in Ottawa, and our market’s activity is constrained by a lack of affordable and suitable supply,” says Fillier. “That’s why we’re currently advocating for impactful measures such as allowing four residential units on property lots and getting rid of exclusionary zoning. There’s a missing middle that we need to build up.”
By the Numbers – Prices:
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.
- The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $628,500 in February 2024, a gain of 2.8% from February 2023.
- The benchmark price for single-family homes was $708,500, up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in February.
- By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $495,000, up slightly at 0.6% compared to a year earlier.
- The benchmark apartment price was $417,000, up 2.7% from year-ago levels.
- The average price of homes sold in February 2024 was $651,340, increasing 2% from February 2023.
- The dollar volume of all home sales in February 2024 was $577 million, up 17.5% from the same month in 2023.
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings
- The number of new listings saw an increase of 29.5% from February 2023. There were 1,539 new residential listings in February 2024. New listings were 10.3% above the five-year average and 3.3% below the 10-year average for the month of February.
- Active residential listings numbered 2,158 units on the market at the end of February 2024, a gain of 16.3% from February 2023. Active listings were 59.6% above the five-year average and 17.7% below the 10-year average for the month of February.
- Months of inventory numbered 2.4 at the end of February 2024, unchanged from February 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
Ottawa Real Estate News Release (OREB) – Ottawa’s MLS® Market Thawed in January but Sales Still Slow
February 6, 2023
The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 629 units in January 2024. This was an increase of 16.5% from January 2023.
Home sales were 10.7% below the five-year average and 3.9% below the 10-year average for the month of January.
“Ottawa’s market activity is seeing positive gains over last year but it’s still a relatively quiet market even by pre-pandemic standards,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “While REALTORS® are telling us there’s lots of showing activity — probably thanks in part to the forgiving winter thus far — it’s not all translating to sales. This tells us that buyers are back out there looking, but still approaching cautiously. During the pandemic market, buyers had to move quickly and sometimes settle for a property that didn’t check all their boxes. Today, buyers are using the slower market to take the time needed to find their perfect place. Sellers would be well-advised to adjust their expectations and thoughtfully consider their pricing and timing strategy using the negotiating expertise and hyper-local data their REALTOR® can provide.”
“Ottawa’s market conditions can fluctuate quickly, though, because our supply is chronically low,” adds Brandon Reay, OREB’s policy and external relations manager. “Ottawa needs more suitable and affordable homes to address the housing crisis, and we need to increase density to meet population demands. We can’t restore and grow upon the market activity Ottawa saw five and ten years ago without more houses for people to buy. OREB recommends direct solutions for meaningful policy change, including streamlining the process at the Ontario Land Tribunal, eliminating exclusionary zoning, and permitting four units on residential lots. To meet the aggressive housing targets, we need to close the labour gap with investments in colleges and trade schools. We don’t need any more reactionary and distracting policy, like the federal government’s extension of the foreign buyers ban.”
By the Numbers – Prices:
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.
- The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $621,600 in January 2024, a gain of 3.2% from January 2023.
- The benchmark price for single-family homes was $703,500, up 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in January.
- By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $462,200, down 2.1% compared to a year earlier.
- The benchmark apartment price was $418,500, up 3.7% from year-ago levels.
- The average price of homes sold in January 2024 was $631,722, increasing 1.8% from January 2023.
- The dollar volume of all home sales in January 2024 was $397.3 million, up 18.6% from the same month in 2023.
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings
- The number of new listings saw an increase of 7.3% from January 2023. There were 1,271 new residential listings in January 2024. New listings were 17.5% above the five-year average and 0.8% above the 10-year average for the month of January.
- Active residential listings numbered 1,961 units on the market at the end of January 2024, a gain of 4.5% from the end of January 2023.
- Active listings were 57.4% above the five-year average and 16.6% below the 10-year average for the month of January. Months of inventory numbered 3.1 at the end of January 2024, down from the 3.5 months recorded at the end of January 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
Foreign Buyer Ban of Real Estate
The foreign buyer ban which was announced in 2022 has been extended from 2025 to 2027. Details on CBC.ca.
CREA – Canadian Real Estate Association 2024 Housing Forecast
The Ottawa Business Journal reports on Canadian Real Estate Association’s updated housing forecast. They also address Royal LePage’s recent update.
National home prices close out 2023 above prior year, despite continued slowdown in market activity
Royal LePage released it’s House Price Survey yesterday. Its highlights are:
- National aggregate home price increased 4.3% year over year in Q4 2023; decreased 1.7% quarter over quarter
- Aggregate home price in greater regions of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver posted gains of 5.1%, 4.1% and 2.7% year over year, respectively, in final quarter of 2023
- Among report’s major regions, Calgary recorded highest year over year price appreciation (10.7%); only major region to post quarterly price gains in Q4 2023 (1.5% over Q3)
- 81% of regional markets posted a quarter-over-quarter decline
- Approximately 2.2 million mortgages in Canada will be renewing over the next two years, most at a much higher interest rate
- National aggregate home price expected to rise 5.5% year over year in Q4 of 2024
Consumer Confidence is Returning
The Ottawa Business Journal using the latest news release from the Ottawa Real Estate Board, as well as the Royal LePage forecast and a statement by Ken Dekker of Re/Max forecasts that confidence is returning to the Ottawa Real Estate market.
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